Italy vs Germany Prediction and Betting Tips | March 20th 2025
Italy will invite Germany to San Siro in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals on Thursday. Both teams registered four wins in the league phase of the competition. The hosts finished second in Group A2 on goal difference while Die Mannschaft were the Group A3 winners.
The Azzurri saw their unbeaten streak end after five games in November as they suffered a 3-1 home loss to France in their previous Nations League outing. Andrea Cambiaso reduced the deficit to one goal in the 35th minute but Adrien Rabiot scored his second goal of the match in the second half to restore France's two-goal lead.
The visitors were unbeaten in the league phase and played out a 1-1 draw against Hungary last time around. Felix Nmecha broke the deadlock in the 76th minute. Late drama ensued as Hungary were awarded a penalty in stoppage time and Dominik Szoboszlai scored the equalizer.
Italy vs Germany Head-to-Head and Key Numbers
- The two teams have a long-standing rivalry and have squared off 37 times in all competitions. The hosts have the upper hand in these meetings, recording 15 wins. Die Mannschaft are not far behind with 10 wins and 12 games have ended in draws.
- The visitors are unbeaten in their last six meetings against the Azzurri, recording three wins.
- The two teams last met in the league phase of the 2022-23 edition when Germany registered a comfortable 5-2 home win.
- Italy have lost just one of their last seven games in the Nations League, with that defeat registered at home against France in November.
- Six of the last nine meetings between the two teams have produced under 2.5 goals.
- The visitors have drawn five of their last six away games in the Nations League.
Italy vs Germany Prediction
The Azzurri suffered their first loss of the Nations League campaign in November and will look to bounce back here. They are unbeaten in their last eight home meetings against Germany and will look to build on that form.
Andrea Cambiaso has been cleared to feature in this match but is yet to join group training. Federico Dimarco has been left out of the 25-man squad due to an injury. Cesare Casadei and Matteo Ruggeri are the two new faces in the squad for Luciano Spalletti and are likely to start from the bench.
Die Mannschaft have lost just one of their last 15 games in all competitions, with that defeat registered against Spain in the UEFA Euro 2024 quarterfinals. They have lost just one of their last 12 games in the Nations League, with that loss registered at home against Hungary. Notably, they have won just one of their 11 competitive meetings against Italy.
Julian Nagelsmann remains without the services of Marc-André ter Stegen, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, and Aleksandar Pavlovic due to injuries.
Both teams had enjoyed a good run of form in the league phase of the competition and are likely to settle for a draw.
Prediction: Italy 1-1 Germany
Italy vs Germany Betting Tips
Tip 1: Result - Draw
Tip 2: Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Under 2.5 goals
Tip 3: Both teams to score - Yes
Tip 4: At least a goal to be scored in the first half - Yes
